Active Weather Ahead: Flash Flooding, Severe Storms, and Tropical Threats to Impact U.S. Into Next Week
Sep 4, 2025
Stat 1: From August 22nd-27th there were 67 thousand lightning strikes in Central and Southern California and 42 thousand in Northern California. State records were broken for most lightning strikes in California in both July and August.
Stat 2: Most tropical storms miss Hawaii to the north or south. The rare ones coming directly from the south are often stronger and more impactful, fueled by warmer waters (80°F+).
Weather Headlines
The weather across the country is going to be remain quite active as we close out the week and head into next week with multiple areas of concern for flash flooding, severe thunderstorms, and tropical impacts.
We’re entering peak hurricane season, where September typically spawns four to five named storms in the Atlantic. Last season saw 9 named storms develop in the Atlantic in September and October, and we may very well have a similar “backloaded” season.
Let’s take a look at what to expect in the days ahead.
Friday Weather
Flood Risk
Southwest: Tropical moisture funnels into the Southwest throughout Friday, sparking clusters of showers & thunderstorms. Totals of 2-3" are possible for parts of Southern Arizona & New Mexico with scattered rain bursts of .5 to 1" elsewhere. Heavy rains over varying terrain and drought-stricken ground may lead to a few instances of flash flooding on Friday.
South Florida: A stalled front will dump between 1-4" of rain across South Florida, leading to isolated flooding, especially in cities where the urban setup may hinder drainage at a fast enough rate.
RISK AREAS
MARGINAL RISK - Miami, Tampa, Phoenix, Albuquerque, Las Vegas
SLIGHT RISK - Tucson, Arizona
Severe Risk
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Northeast TX to Southern Ohio Friday afternoon-overnight. Heat & dew points will merge with a system to introduce medium to large hail, lightning strikes, & damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two might be possible as well. Dallas, Little Rock, Memphis, Nashville, and Louisville are in the risk area.
Saturday Weather
Flood Risk
Remnant moisture from the Pacific tropical system will linger over the southwest while a stalled frontal boundary also lifts moisture to spark widespread scattered showers across the Southwest, Texas, and Rockies. There will likely be a few isolated totals over an inch but most precipitation should be held below that amount, still, saturated soils & sensitive terrain can lead to a few isolated flooding instances.
New England & Miami: Interesting to group the two regions but the same elongated front extends over the Atlantic but tails back to both corners of the Eastern Seaboard. Scattered storms with plenty of moisture available may lead to 1-2" of rain to fall in a hurry. Miami is in the risk area because of previous rainfall and the city being sensitive to slow drainage. Northern New England faces drought conditions with varying terrain, so excessive runoff could be possible for a few locations.
RISK AREAS-
MARGINAL RISK - Phoenix, Tucson, El Paso, Albuquerque, Denver, Salt Lake City, Boise, parts of VT, NH, & interior
Maine.
SEVERE RISK- A surface cold front will lead to the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with a few of them turning severe across the Mid-Atlantic.
Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard with this setup with a few gusts possible exceeding 60 mph.
Some storms may linger into the overnight.
RISK AREAS-
MARGINAL RISK - Washington DC, Richmond, Greensboro, NC.Severe Risk
Sunday Weather
Flood Risk
Excessive moisture will continue to linger and interact with a stalled surface front over parts of Texas and spilling north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will lead to some heavy rainfall rates of 1-2"/hour and can lead to flash flooding, especially over Southern Texas. Rainfall totals will vary widely depending on if storms hit the same area multiple times, but 1-3" are expected throughout the day.
MARGINAL RISK — Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Midland, Abilene
SLIGHT RISK — Not many SMR clients in the higher risk area — Piedras Negras
TROPICS
As we’re monitoring in the Teams channel, two tropical systems persist in the Pacific with Lorena moisture fueling showers and storms over the southwest. Kiko should turn north of Hawaii but some outer bands may spark showers Tuesday/Wednesday next week.
The next Atlantic storm should take
shape by the end of the weekend.
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY
Here’s a look at total rainfall through Sunday evening across the country leading to the aforementioned daily flood risks. All threats will be dismissed by Monday morning as moisture taps out across the Southwest and the surface front finally running out of real estate across the east. Still some multi-day totals may reach 4-6" for some.
SERVICES & WHY CHOOSE US:
A disaster can leave you reeling if you’re not prepared. Our restoration team is not only here to help you clean up, but we also offer pre-loss planning to help you prepare for a variety of potential disasters so that you can minimize business interruption and get back up and running as quickly as possible.
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Pre-Loss Planning
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Water & Storm Restoration
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Fire & Smoke Restoration
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Reconstruction
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Mold Remediation
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Electronics & Equipment Restoration Content & Document Restoration
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Ancillary Services
WHY CHOOSE SERVICEMASTER? WE ARE AN INDUSTRY LEADER IN RECOVERY MANAGEMENT.
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True Full-Service Partner
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Equipment & Resource Staging
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Large Loss Job Reporting
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Centralized Management
LATEST UPDATES:
Before a Storm:
Create A Hurricane Procedure Playbook
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After a Storm:
Tips on Reopening Your Business After a Natural Disaster
Evacuating in the Face of a Hurricane
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BEFORE, DURING AND
AFTER DISASTER
ServiceMaster is an industry leader when it comes to emergency restoration services. Our team of highly trained professionals provide 24/7 response for any residential, or commercial property disaster, from fires and floods to extreme weather events and beyond.
With our years of experience in the field combined with cutting-edge technology, we can restore your business or home quickly and efficiently so you can get back on track as soon as possible.
WHAT TO DO/TIPS:
TIP 1
Safety First: Prioritize personal safety and that of your family. Avoid flooded areas and downed power lines.
TIP 2
Document Damage: Take photos or videos of any damage to your property for insurance claims.
TIP 3
Secure Property: Cover broken windows, tarp roofs, and board up openings to prevent further damage.
TIP 4
Contact Insurance: Notify your insurance company as soon as possible to start the claims process.
TIP 5
Mitigate Mold: Dry out the affected areas within 24-48 hours to prevent mold growth.
TIP 6
Dispose of Debris: Remove debris safely to prevent accidents and further damage.
The SMR and Monarch Weather & Climate Intelligence partnership empowers us to leverage cutting-edge weather intelligence to enhance our disaster response efforts.